On Friday, the three major indexes closed lower, with the S & P 500 closing below the 50-day moving average for the first time since April. The US military launched an attack on Iran after US President Donald Trump accused the country of "foolishly violating" the ceasefire by launching drone attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

The attack came more than a week after Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran's president to work out a permanent peace deal to end the war between the two countries. Vice President Vance traveled to Switzerland over the weekend for talks with Iran on the deal. After the attack, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said: "We announce that we will take counter-action against the US military attack on Sirik Island."

This week, the S & P is down about 1.9 per cent, the Dow is up about 0.4 per cent for three weeks and the Nasdaq is down about 4.4 per cent. Oracle (ORCL.US) fell 19.4 percent this week, the biggest weekly decline since the Internet bubble burst in August 2001. Investors are increasingly worried about AI financing. In the most recent fiscal year, the company’s capital expenditures surged by 162%, its free cash flow posted a deficit of nearly $24 billion, and its debt reached as high as $130 billion.

[U.S. Stocks] As of the close, the Dow was down 44.51 points, or 0.09 percent, to 51876.11 points; the Nasdaq was down 60.99 points, or 0.24 percent, to 25297.62 points; and the S & P 500 was down 3.47 points, or 0.05 percent, to 7354.02 points. Semiconductor and storage concept stocks weakened, with Western Data (WDC.US) down 13%, Seagate Technology (STX.US) down 12%, Sandi (SNDK.US) down 10%, Meiguang Technology (MU.US) down 6.6 and Qualcomm (QCOM.US) down 7%.

[European Stocks] Germany's DAX30 index fell 328.90 points, or 1.32 percent, to 24671.64 points; Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 19.23 points, or 0.18 percent, to 10510.66 points; France's CAC40 index fell 46.74 points, or 0.55 percent, to 8384.87 points; Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 45.53 points, or 0.73 percent, to 6222.00 points; Spain's IBEX35 index fell 75.13 points, or 0.39 percent, at 19438.47, Italy's FTSE MIB fell 480.41 points, or 0.93 per cent, to 51302.50.

[Asian Stocks] The Nikkei 225 index fell 4.15 percent and the Korea Composite Stock Index fell 5.81 percent.

[US dollar index] the US dollar index, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, fell 0.07 percent on the day and closed at 101.357 at the end of the foreign exchange market. At the close of the New York foreign exchange market, 1 euro was exchanged for 1.1386 U.S. dollars, up from 1.1373 on the previous trading day; 1 British pound was exchanged for 1.3200 U.S. dollars, up from 1.3198 on the previous trading day. One U.S. dollar exchanged for 161.74 Japanese yen, down from 161.80 yen on the previous trading day; one U.S. dollar exchanged for 0.8097 Swiss francs, down from 0.8098 Swiss francs on the previous trading day; one U.S. dollar exchanged for 1.4192 Canadian dollars, down from 1.4197 Canadian dollars on the previous trading day; and one U.S. dollar exchanged for 9.7409 Swedish kronor, up from 9.7352 Swedish kronor on the previous trading day.

[Encrypted Currency] Bitcoin hovered near the 60000 mark, reporting $60060 as of press release. Ethereum reported $1577.16.

[Crude oil] as the market focused on the improvement of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the prospect of increasing oil supply, international crude oil futures prices fell significantly on the 26th, and the closing price of New York crude oil futures in recent months fell below $70 a barrel for the first time since March. As of the close on the 26th, the price of light sweet crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $2.69 to $69.23 per barrel, a decline of 3.74%. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil futures for August delivery on the London market dropped by $3.27 to $71.99 per barrel, down 4.34%.

[Precious Metals] Spot gold rose 1.52 percent to $4087.84; spot silver rose 2.28 percent to $59.186.

Macro news]

U.S. Central Command: U.S. strikes on Iran in response to its attacks on merchant ships. U.S. Central Command stated that on June 26, its forces conducted strikes against Iran in a robust response to the previous day’s attack on a merchant vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Previously, on June 25, Iran used a one-way attack drone to strike the cargo vessel “Ever Lovely.” U.S. military aircraft subsequently struck Iranian missile and drone storage facilities, as well as coastal radar stations. The Iranian military’s unwarranted attacks on merchant vessels clearly violate the ceasefire agreement. Furthermore, as substantial trade flows transit this critical international shipping lane, Iran’s dangerous actions also undermine freedom of navigation. U.S. Central Command forces will continue to coordinate and provide support for the safe passage of merchant vessels transiting the strait. The U.S. military will maintain its presence and remain vigilant to ensure that all agreements reached with Iran are observed and implemented, and that they remain effective.

Trump threatens Europe against digital services tax. President Trump said on social media: "Many European countries have been discussing the impending digital services tax on American companies. Some of these countries are close to implementation. It is hereby declared that any country that imposes such a tax will immediately be subject to a 100 percent tariff on all goods sold to the United States. The tariff supersedes any trade agreements with the countries concerned, whether those agreements are implemented, signed or not yet in force. In addition, if the country concerned insists on imposing such a tax, the 100 per cent tariff will take effect immediately. Thank you for your interest in this matter."

Fed's Kashkari: One rate hike expected in 2026. Fed official Kashkari said signs of widespread inflation led him to expect one rate hike this year in the Fed's economic forecast released earlier this month. Meanwhile, interest rates are expected to remain unchanged in 2027. Kashkari said in a media interview on Friday, “I am concerned about inflation, and this is not just related to the situation in the Middle East; it reflects broader signs of inflationary pressures in the economy.” The war in Iran has driven up oil prices, and prices across numerous categories have also risen. This has heightened concerns among some Federal Reserve officials that inflation is more widespread and persistent, potentially necessitating more aggressive action by the central bank. A report released earlier this week showed that the PCE year-on-year rate rose 4.1% in May, marking the largest increase since April 2023. Inflation has been above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for more than five years. In the Federal Reserve’s dot plot projections released last week, half of the officials who provided forecasts expect at least one interest-rate hike this year.

The U.S. consumer confidence index in June was higher than the initial estimate, boosted by the fall in gasoline prices. The final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for June came in at 49.5 (compared with an initial reading of 48.9), up about 10% from May, as gasoline prices eased. Consumer confidence has improved across all income levels, wealth brackets, and political affiliations. Expectations for the business outlook over the next five years have risen sharply by 16%, suggesting that consumer concerns about the long-term consequences of the Iran conflict appear to be easing. However, the confidence index remains in negative territory, 13% below its February 2026 level—prior to the outbreak of the Iran conflict—and nearly 20% lower than the same period last year. The cost of living remains the top concern for consumers: For the third consecutive month, more than half of respondents have cited rising prices as a drag on their personal finances. Over the next year, inflation expectations edged down from 4.8% in May to 4.6% this month, though they remain elevated. The current reading is significantly higher than the 3.4% recorded in February, prior to the outbreak of the Iran conflict, and exceeds all figures for the entire year 2024. Long-term inflation expectations declined from 3.9% last month to 3.3% in June, though they remain slightly above the 2.8%–3.2% range for 2024.

stock news]

It is reported that OpenAI is considering an IPO as early as 2027. According to people familiar with the matter, OpenAI is considering an IPO as early as 2027, when its artificial intelligence rival Anthropic may be the first to go public. People familiar with the matter said that although both companies have secretly submitted listing applications to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), OpenAI's management expects that Anthropic is likely to be the first to go public. The media previously reported that OpenAI aims to go public this fall, and Anthropic is considering an IPO as early as October. People familiar with the matter said that the recent volatility of technology stocks affected the timing of OpenAI's listing. Discussions are ongoing, and the details of OpenAI's IPO plans are subject to change.

Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta(META.US), urged Meta to explore collaborations with Polymarket and Kalshi. According to three employees familiar with the matter, CEO Zuckerberg of Meta is urging its executives to discuss cooperation with Polymarket and Kalshi, a popular forecasting trading platform. Meta is currently developing a similar application. The app created by Meta is called Arena, and users can bet on almost all kinds of events. Meta hopes to get a piece of the action with the current forecast of continued expansion of the trading track. Internal executives said Arena is fundamentally different from Polymarket and Kalshi, which support cash betting: the app will use virtual points similar to online game points instead of real currency. Three employees who did not want to be named said (several have signed confidentiality agreements) that Zuckerberg has listed Arena as a core priority project, and its layout plan is more far-reaching than the outside world previously knew. He has asked company executives to take the initiative to connect Polymarket and Kalshi, but the specific form of cooperation between the two parties is still inconclusive.