Huajian Good Morning Voice

Market Overview

Last Friday:

• Non farm employment growth in the United States far exceeds expectations，Chip stocks lead US stock rebound，S&P/Nasdaq up for six consecutive weeksCreate the longest consecutive week of gains in a year and a half;The chip index closed up 5.5%, andBoth S&P and NasdaqOn the third day of this weekRecord breaking revenue，Micron has risen by over 15%It is said to have achieved contract manufacturingapplePreliminary Protocol for Device ChipsIntelUp 14%，AMD's weekly financial report has seen a cumulative increase of 26%CoreWeave, which is underperforming in terms of guidance, fell more than 10%; Excellent performance and winning the large order of "Golden Dome"Rocket Lab surged 34%。

• After the US non farm payroll report, the two-year US Treasury yield surged in the short term, broke the daily high, and soon turned downward. At the beginning of the Asian market session, after the exchange of fire between the US and Iran, the US dollar index hit a new daily high and then turned downwards;Offshore RMB rises above 6.80 for two consecutive days, setting a new four-year highBitcoin recovered from the $80000 mark during trading and rebounded more than 1% from the daily low.US Iran restrains exchange of fire, crude oil reverses three consecutive declines, but intraday gains slow downIt has fallen by over 6% throughout the week. Gold and silver have risen three times in a row. New York copper rebounded nearly 2% and closed at a historic high.

• In Asia, GEM fell nearly 1%, chip semiconductors collectively adjusted, robots bucked the trend, the Hang Seng Index fell nearly 1%, science networking stocks fell more, and Kwai rose more than 9%.

MondayAt the beginning of the Asia Pacific session,US stock index futures fallS&P and Dow Jones futures fell more than 0.2%;US and Brent crude oil prices rise by nearly 3%New York gold futures fell by over 0.5%, while spot silver fell by over 1%.

important news

China

Ministry of Foreign Affairs：China and the United States maintain communication regarding Trump's visit to ChinaCurrently, no further information is provided. Spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce:He LifengI will lead a delegation to South Korea and hold economic and trade consultations with the United States from May 12th to 13th。

National Standing Committee：Promote the resolution of local government debt risks，Strengthen the full chain management of mineral resources，Strengthen the planning and construction of water networks, new power grids, computing power grids, next-generation communication networks, urban underground pipelines, logistics networks, and other related infrastructure。

Four departments：Exploring the direct connection of nuclear power, hydrogen energy, and other energy sources to power computing facilitiesContinuously increase the proportion of green electricity in computing power facilities.

ChinaAprildenominated in US dollarsExport increased by 14.1% year-on-year，Imports increased by 25.3% year-on-yearAll growth exceeded expectations.

Report:DeepSeekFirst round financing target of 50 billion yuan、Expected to create the largest single financing for Chinese AI companiesThe total valuation may exceed 350 billion yuan.

Report:ByteDanceIncrease the scale of AI capital expenditure plan by 25% in 2026Up to over 200 billion yuan.

overseas

Friday:Trumpcall, name, say, weighPossible resumption of the 'Freedom Plan' operation；US Secretary of StateUrging Iran to 'enter into serious negotiation process'”、Expected to receive a response from the Iranian side on Friday；U.S. militaryOpen fire on Iranian oil tanker 'violating blockade'；IranIt is reported that there were "sporadic clashes" with US warships in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz earlier on Friday, during the review of the US proposed plan to end the war,The Gulf exchange of fire has ceased, but there is a risk of it reignitingYi is currently drafting laws related to the strait.

Sunday: According to Iranian media,IranThrough PakistanResponse to the US proposal，Focus on ending the warAnd security issues in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz,Propose to lift US sanctions on oil sales to Iran within 30 days；Trump: I don't like itIran's response，Completely unacceptable。

Trumpcall, name, say, weighRussia and Ukraine cease fire for three days and exchange thousands of prisoners of war starting from the 9thThe US Secretary of State said that the US was still ready to act as the mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.PutinReceived a message from Zelensky requesting a meeting,Not opposed to talks in a third country。Russia-UkraineOn the 10thPoint fingers at each other for violating ceasefire arrangementsBoth are referred to as adopting a reciprocal response.

United States4115000 new non farm jobs added in the month, far exceeding expectationsThe largest two month increase since the end of 2024, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%;New Federal Reserve News AgencyNon farm in AprilData prompts the Federal Reserve to remain inactive，Policy focus shifts towards inflationUS consumer confidence has hit a historic low for two consecutive months, with oil prices and tariffs exacerbating inflation anxiety.

Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report：Geopolitics and oil shocks rise as the top two financial system risks，Risks related to redemption of private equity credit are 'controllable'。

Federal Reserve Board Member Milan: XiHope Powell only stays on as a director for a short period of timeThere will be no more sinister schemes.Next year's Federal Reserve BoardWarningIf:AIThe failure of the technological revolution willCausing stagflation。

New Debt King：Currently serving the United States; Debt Restructuring; prepare；Hassert Default on US Treasury bonds is' impossible within a million years'.

British Prime Minister StammerDeclaration of 'Never Resign'British bonds rebounded in response, and the market is betting that the 'worst-case scenario' has passed.

Report:IntelReached preliminary chip manufacturing agreement with AppleThe Trump administration mediated and Intel's stock price rose by over 10%.

Market closing report

European and American stock marketsThe S&P 500 rose 0.84% to 7398.93 points, with a cumulative weekly increase of 2.33%; The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.02% to 49609.16 points, with a cumulative weekly increase of 0.32%; The Nasdaq rose 1.71% to 26247.076 points, with a cumulative increase of 4.51% for the week. The European STOXX 600 index fell 0.69% to 612.14 points, with a cumulative increase of 0.10% for the week.

A-sharesThe Shanghai Composite Index closed roughly flat at 4179.95 points. The Shenzhen Component Index closed down 0.50% at 15563.80 points. The ChiNext Index closed down 0.96% at 3796.13 points.

bond market: By the end of the bond market, the yield of the US 10-year treasury bond bond was about 4.35%, down about 4 basis points within the day, and down about 4 basis points accumulatively throughout the week; The yield of two-year US Treasury bonds is about 3.88%, a decrease of about 3 basis points during the day, and remained at the same level as a week ago on Friday.

commodityWTI June crude oil futures closed up 0.64% at $95.42 per barrel, with a cumulative decline of 6.4% for the week. Brent crude oil futures for July closed up 1.23% at $101.29 per barrel, with a cumulative drop of 6.36% for the week. COMEX May gold futures closed up 0.44% at $4720.4 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 1.95% for the week. COMEX May silver futures closed up 0.87% at $80.395 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 5.85% for the week. COMEX May copper futures closed up 1.98% at $6.249 per pound, with a cumulative increase of 5.34% for the week.

Global heavyweight

China

Trump said that the China US summit will be held as planned. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that China and the United States are in communication regarding Trump's visit to China, and there is currently no further information provided.

• According to CCTV News,The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce answers questions from reporters on issues related to the China US economic and trade consultationsThe spokesperson stated that, as agreed by both China and the United States, members of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central CommitteeVice Premier He Lifeng of the State Council will lead a delegation to South Korea for economic and trade consultations with the United States from May 12th to 13thBoth sides will conduct consultations on economic and trade issues of mutual concern, guided by the important consensus reached during the Busan summit and previous phone conversations between the two heads of state.

National Standing Committee: Promote the resolution of local government debt risks and strengthen the full chain management of mineral resources. The meeting reviewed and approved the draft of the Implementation Regulations of the Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China. The meeting pointed out that efforts should be made to make good use of macro policies, adhere to proactive measures, and continuously improve implementation efficiency. To strengthen the domestic circulation, we need to make breakthroughs in supply-demand coordination, linkage upgrading, and implement and improve measures to expand and improve the service industry,Strengthen the planning and construction of water networks, new power grids, computing power grids, next-generation communication networks, urban underground pipelines, logistics networks, and other related infrastructure。

Four departments: Explore the direct connection of nuclear power, hydrogen energy and other energy sources to power computing facilities, and continuously increase the proportion of green electricity in computing facilities. The Action Plan for Promoting the Dual Empowerment of Artificial Intelligence and Energy proposes to enhance the diversified power supply capacity of computing facilities. Establish and improve the planning and construction standards for energy supply of computing power facilities based on the scale of the computing power facility access system, the voltage level of the power grid, the penetration rate of new energy in the power grid, the requirements for power quality, and the types of computing power facility business. Encourage the configuration of grid type energy storage in computing power facilities to enhance power supply stability and active support capabilities for the power system.

In April, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 14.1% year-on-year, and imports increased by 25.3% year-on-year, both exceeding expectations. The General Administration of Foreign Affairs announced that in terms of exports, China exported 5.92 trillion yuan worth of mechanical and electrical products in the first four months, an increase of 17.6%, accounting for 63.5% of the country's overall exports. Among them, the export of green and low-carbon products such as electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and wind turbines increased by 68.1%, 43.2%, and 40.7% respectively, and the export of industrial robots increased by 30%.

Report: DeepSeek's first round financing target is 50 billion yuan, which is expected to create the largest single financing for Chinese AI companies, with a total valuation of over 350 billion yuan. According to other sources,DeepSeekWe plan to launch an iterative version V4.1 of the V4 model in June.

Report: ByteDance raised the planned scale of AI capital expenditure in 2026 by 25% to more than 200 billion yuan.

NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun: If invited, he will visit China with Trump. According to reports, the US government is inviting Nvidia, AppleBoeing、QualcommCEOs of large corporations such as Blackstone, Citigroup, and Visa are accompanying Trump on his visit to China.

Online rumors suggest that personnel in Yibin, Sichuan have been linked to overseas cruise ship outbreaks, but official reports state that there is no temporal or spatial intersection. According to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Yibin City, Sichuan Province, experts have determined that Chen, a resident of Yibin, has no risk of infection or community transmission.

overseas

On Friday, May 8th,The US Secretary of State urged to "enter into a serious negotiation process" as the US military opened fire on Iranian oil tankers that "violated the blockade". Iran claimed that the Gulf exchange of fire had stopped but feared a resurgence.

• Trump: Possible Resumption of 'Freedom Plan' OperationRubio said,Expected to receive a response from Iran on FridayI hope it is a 'serious proposal'. The US military claimed that firing prevented two Iranian oil tankers from violating the blockade from entering the port of Oman in the Gulf of Oman; Since the US blockade, over 50 ships have been forced to turn.

• The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated，Iran is currently reviewing the US proposal to end the warIran is nominally in a ceasefire state, but its armed forces are fully prepared to retaliate against any aggression if necessary.The Iranian military claims，Earlier on Friday, there were sporadic clashes with US warships in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz。

• According to Iranian media, Iranian lawmakers say that the US maritime blockade operation will be met with a military response from Iran; Iraqi officials said that the US military attacked civilian ships in Iraq on Friday night, resulting in 1 death and 10 injuries; Iran is currently drafting relevant laws for the Strait of Hormuz.

• According to US media, US officials have stated that Qatar is a "key secret channel" for negotiations between the US and Iran to end the war.

• The report states that the Iranian Navy has detained a non compliant oil tanker, accusing it of "attempting to interfere with Iran's oil exports and national interests".

• There is a suspected large-scale crude oil leak near Iran's key oil export hub, Hark Island. Satellite images taken from May 6th to 8th show a gray white oil film appearing in the waters west of Hark Island. Analysts say that this oil film "visually matches the characteristics of crude oil" and is estimated to cover an area of about 45 square kilometers.

• According to Thursday's news, Saudi Arabia's attitude has reversed, and the United States may restart the "Freedom Plan". The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has once again escalated?On Thursday evening Eastern Time, there was a direct exchange of fire between the United States and Iran near the Strait, and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz suddenly escalated.At the diplomatic level, negotiations for a temporary ceasefire agreement are progressing intensively, but Iran's tough stance and the new round of US sanctions have left the outlook uncertain.

On Saturday, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard warned that violating Iranian ships would trigger a fierce attack and "have locked onto American targets".

On Sunday, the 10th,

• According to Xinhua News Agency citing Iranian media, Iran has responded to the US proposal to end the war through Pakistan; Iran proposes that the US lift oil sales sanctions against Iran within 30 days. CCTV citesheLangguansquarepersonAccording to reports, Yi is the latest in the United StatesResponse focuses on ending regional wars and addressing maritime security issues in the Persian Gulf and Strait of HormuzAccording to sources, the Pakistani side has forwarded Iran's response to the US.

• Trump: dislikes Iran's latest response, 'completely unacceptable'.

• Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister warns France and Britain that only Iran can ensure the security of the Strait of Hormuz. Macron: France has never considered deploying in the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump stated that Russia and Ukraine will cease fire for three days and exchange thousands of prisoners of war starting from the 9th, while the US Secretary of State stated that the US is still prepared to act as a mediator. Trump said that the negotiations on ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict are still ongoing, and "the distance to reach the goal is getting closer". US Secretary of State Rubio said that if the relevant efforts "do not make progress", the US "does not want to waste time".

• Putin: Received a message from Zelensky requesting a meeting and does not oppose talks in a third country. On the evening of the 9th local time, Putin stated that the talks should be aimed at ultimately signing an agreement.

• Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of violating ceasefire arrangements on Sunday, 10th, both claiming to adopt a reciprocal responseZelensky stated that in the past two days, the Ukrainian side has recorded over 150 offensive actions, hundreds of shelling, and nearly 10000 attack drones. Due to the lack of large-scale attacks by the Russian side, Ukraine has restrained long-range strikes in the past two days. He emphasized that in the future, the Ukrainian side will continue to respond in an equal manner; If the Russian side decides to resume full-scale operations, the Ukrainian side will respond immediately.

• The Russian Ministry of Defense reported on Sunday that in the past 24 hours, Ukrainian armed forces have launched 676 artillery attacks on Russian military positions using artillery, rocket launchers, mortars, and tanks. The Ukrainian army also carried out 6331 drone attacks and launched 8 attacks on Russian positions. In this context, the Russian armed forces have responded equally to ceasefire violations.

In April, the non farm payroll in the United States added 115000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, marking the largest two month increase since the end of 2024, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. The number of non farm payroll workers in the United States surged by 115000 in April, far exceeding economists' expectations of 65000; The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3% in March, but wage growth slowed to 3.6% year-on-year, easing some inflation concerns. The broad unemployment rate has risen to 8.2% and the labor force participation rate has decreased, but the overall resilience of the data has given the Federal Reserve a wait-and-see space to respond to inflationary pressures caused by the Iran war, further reducing the urgency of short-term interest rate cuts.

• New Federal Reserve News Agency: April non farm payroll data prompts the Federal Reserve to remain inactive and shift policy focus to inflationNick Timiraos wrote that the data from the April employment report is not sufficient to justify the implementation of loose policies. The Federal Reserve will now discuss when and how to shift towards a neutral stance, implying that the possibility of a rate hike is already on par with a rate cut, and the answer may depend almost entirely on future inflation data performance.

US consumer confidence has hit a historic low for two consecutive months, with oil prices and tariffs exacerbating inflation anxiety. The initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in May fell from 49.8 in April, exceeding expectations, to 48.2, the lowest in history; Personal financial evaluation has dropped to the worst since 2009. At the same time, consumer inflation expectations are high, with an expected price increase of 4.5% over the next year and a long-term inflation expectation of 3.4% over the next five to ten years. The survey leader pointed out that about one-third of the respondents mentioned gasoline prices and one-third mentioned tariff issues.

Federal ReserveFinancial Stability Report:Geopolitics and oil shocks rise as the top two financial system risks，Risks related to redemption of private equity credit are 'controllable'The report warns that "rising interest rates and inflation may have significant impacts on the financial and economic sectors, including a decline in asset prices

• Respondents generally pointed out that the Iran conflict may lead to long-term supply disruptions in the energy market and may trigger a period of sustained high inflation. Multiple interviewees expressed that inflationary pressures stemming from energy shocks may force central banks around the world to tighten monetary policies even in the context of weak economic growth, which could trigger market risk aversion and amplify financial vulnerabilities in other areas.

• In the survey, half of the respondents were concerned about AI related risks, including stock valuation issues, increasing reliance on debt for capital expenditures, creating leverage risks, and the potential weakening of the labor market due to the widespread application of AI.

Federal Reserve Board Member Milan: I hope Powell will only stay on as a member for a short period of time and will not have any more sinister intentions. Milan expressed their stance on Powell's retention as a board member, stating that they hope this is only a "transitional period" for power change and are wary of a "loyalty split" or a situation of multi headed leadership within the Federal Reserve. He also released a strong dovish signal, calling for interest rate cuts to alleviate the suppression of employment, and advocating for reducing forward guidance to enhance policy flexibility, with an overall stance leaning towards a loose stance.

• Next year, the Federal Reserve Board: If AI becomes successful, it will raise interest rates; If AI fails, it will experience stagflation. Chicago Fed President Goolsby warns that widespread market expectations of AI productivity could itself push up interest rates and trigger stagflation when the technological dividend fails. He pointed out that when expectations have been fully priced, businesses and residents will overdraw their consumption and investment in advance, causing the economy to overheat.

New Debt King: Working for the United States; Debt Restructuring; Be prepared; Hassett: Default on US Treasury bonds is' impossible within a million years'. The "new bond king" Gunak is preparing for the extremely low probability scenario of unilateral debt restructuring in the United States, and has replaced high coupon treasury bond with the lowest coupon in the flagship fund. He is concerned that if the economy experiences a severe recession, the government may lower the coupon rate from 4% to 1%. The implied default probability in the current market is less than 1%, but concerns about the $31 trillion debt scale are still heating up.

British Prime Minister Stamer has stated that he will "never resign": UK bonds have rebounded in response, and the market is betting that the "worst-case scenario" has passed. Against the backdrop of the Labour Party's disastrous defeat and the Reform Party's sudden rise in local elections, Stamer made it clear that he would "never resign" and successfully temporarily stabilized market sentiment. The yield of British bonds fell in response, and the pound rebounded. Investors believe that the worst-case scenario of "Stamer stepping down and fiscal easing" has been temporarily ruled out. However, the risks of political fragmentation and loose fiscal discipline have not substantially eased.

Report: Intel and Apple have reached a preliminary chip manufacturing agreement, with the Trump administration mediating the process. Apple and Intel have rebuilt their chip cooperation after many years, with the Trump administration holding a 10% stake in Intel. Trump and the US Secretary of Commerce have lobbied and facilitated this cooperation multiple times. Currently, Intel has established partnerships with Apple, Nvidia, and SpaceX. Driven by this news, Intel's stock price surged 13.15% during the day, while Apple's stock price rose 1.8% during the day.

Never seen before! According to reports, the client proposed to pay to help Hynix "buy lithography machines and build production lines". SK Hynix is cautious about these proposals, concerned that binding a single customer will lower chip prices, and revealed that the current available production capacity is "basically zero". At the same time, the price range mechanism and 30% -40% advance payment arrangement for the company's long-term supply contracts are also under discussion.

Selected research reports

Dalio: There will be huge changes in the next 5 years, and the world will be completely unrecognizable thereafter. Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Fund, issued a strong warning:Fiscal deficitThe five forces of wealth inequality, political fragmentation, geopolitical reconstruction, and AI impact are superimposed, and the United States will usher in the next five years; Great turbulence "; The whole world may be unrecognizable. He suggested that investors maintain their gold positions at 5% to 15% to hedge against chaos.

• Dalio: The US economy is accumulating "fatal patches" and will face historic changes in the next five years. Dalio warns: US spending is 40% higher than income, debt is six times income; Plaques are accumulating; ——A heart attack is just a matter of time. He predicts that the next five years will be a turning point in history that will change everything, with a combination of debt crisis, political fragmentation, geopolitical reconstruction, climate shock, and AI disruption. The situation is closer to the 1930s than it was in the 1970s. Once the United States is perceived by the outside world as being in the Middle East; Failed "; Its symbolic significance will be similar to the loss of the Suez Canal by Britain, which is considered the end of the British colonial empire. He suggests allocating 5% to 15% gold in the investment portfolio to hedge against the chaos.

Bank of America Hartnett: It is rare for the US stock market to be so strong in history, and gold is expected to rise by 30% this year. The Hartnett team points out that the US stock market and gold are moving towards a rare fourth consecutive year of double-digit gains, with the S&P 500 expected to see an annualized increase of 20%. Recently, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have reached new highs, with the gold year high approaching $5600 per ounce, just one step away from the 30% increase target of $5631.6. The market width is improving, and small cap stocks, emerging markets, and commodities have ushered in; Long term turning point of bullish sentiment;.

• Bank of America Hartnett: The materials sector will be the next 'bull market darling'. Hartnett pointed out that the materials sector currently accounts for only 2% of the market value of the S&P 500, with a valuation at a 30-year low. Geopolitical resource competition, AI capital expenditure, defense expansion, and housing shortage in the United States constitute multiple driving forces. He proposed; Foam barbell" Strategy: It is recommended to simultaneously invest in AI chips and oversold cyclical assets, with the materials sector being the optimal pairing.

In the era of physical AI, the core of 'selling shovel people': Is data collection the next trend for robots? Guotai Haitong believes that the core bottleneck of embodied intelligence development has shifted from algorithms to data, and its demand and collection complexity are exploding exponentially. In the future, "simulation/video pre training+real fine-tuning" is expected to become the mainstream path. Under this path, data collection toolchains, simulation platforms, and video dimensionality enhancement technologies, as the "shovel sellers" of the physical AI era, will occupy the core value nodes of the industry chain.

What will burst the AI foam? The Gavekal Research report points out that the key to determining the sustainability of the AI investment cycle is the "Wicksell spread" - the difference between investment returns and financing costs. The current indicator is still 70 basis points higher than the historical median of the past two decades, indicating that investment incentives for enterprises are still sufficient and far from reaching the danger zone. What is really possible to burst the foam is not that the investment scale is too large, but that the return cannot cover the cost. Two major risks need to be vigilant: inflation pushing up interest rates and power bottlenecks restricting expansion.

An oil crisis triggers the biggest upward cycle in oil services in 20 years? Barclays believes that the current oil crisis is not a short-term fluctuation, but a structural rupture similar to the 1973 embargo. Approximately 9 million barrels per day of production in the Middle East have been interrupted, while shale oil in the United States has ended its "bottom line" role due to depleted reserves and inability to quickly replenish capital discipline. Returning idle production capacity to zero and pricing power to the oil service industry, it is expected that upstream capital expenditures will accelerate to 9-10% or even double-digit growth in 2027-2028, driving the best oil service super cycle in nearly two decades.

This year's AI+energy conversion is equivalent to the AI+dividend of 2023-2024 and the AI+resources of 2025. CITIC Securities believes that major events such as the US Iran peace talks and Trump's visit to China are approaching in the short term, leading to supply-demand analysis; Limping "; Macro game funds are receding, and allocation funds are reducing their holdings at high prices. Although the short-term rhythm tends to be complex, this year's combination of AI and energy represents a few core asset allocation mainlines with real supply and demand gaps and excess profits in the context of the continuous deepening of global K-type differentiation.

The Return of History: Deutsche Bank Talks about the Future of Gold, the US Dollar, and Currency. Deutsche Bank believes that the unipolar pattern, free trade, and low inflation conditions that drove the dominance of US dollar reserves have been reversed. The proportion of US dollars in global central bank reserves has decreased from over 60% to 40%, while the proportion of gold has almost doubled to 30% in the past four years. If emerging markets raise their gold target to 40%, the price of gold could rise to $8000 within five years. Gold may indicate that a new monetary order independent of the US dollar system is brewing.

Domestic macro

Regarding intelligent agents, the four departments collectively speak out! The Opinions on the Implementation of Standardized Application and Innovative Development of Agents specifies that agents are an important form of AI, and the core deployment includes: building intelligent Internet and AIP protocol to achieve mutual recognition and interoperability between agents; Define the boundary between user and intelligent agent decision-making to ensure that users retain the final decision-making power; Implement filing recalls for sensitive areas, focus on industry self-discipline for low-risk areas, and implement classified governance. Simultaneously promoting the implementation and application of 33 specific scenarios including scientific research, manufacturing, and healthcare.

China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: The online rumor that "new energy vehicle companies were summoned and filed for investigation due to power locking issues" is false information.

Over 35 billion yuan, run away! Statistics show that on May 7th, the net outflow of funds from stock ETFs in the entire market reached 35.075 billion yuan, with 18 consecutive trading days of net outflow. At the same time, stagnant stocks such as securities ETFs and dividend ETFs have been favored by funds against the trend, and dividend products are increasingly becoming a new trend in funds due to their stable dividend characteristics.

Goldman Sachs: Overmatched with China, A-shares outperform H-shares, setting the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 target at 5300 points. Goldman Sachs stated that the advantage of A-shares is attributed to the resonance of multiple positive factors:PPITurning from 41 months of deflation to positive growth, raising the 2026 profit forecast from 16% to 23%, and attracting residents' savings into the market with a 4% total shareholder return rate. H-shares are facing headwinds due to the 37% concentration of MSCI China Index in software technology stocks, against the backdrop of global capital preference for hardware.

Is China going to sell fifth generation phones? The "foreign trade version" of the J-35 fighter jet has been unveiled, and experts say it may become a strong competitor to the US F-35, setting off a real "storm" in the global high-end fighter market. A nose with the words'; AVIC" Identification and numbering; 0001" The J-35, with its unique livery and single wheel front landing gear, recently made its debut. Experts have determined that it is highly likely an export model, with the serial number being either; J-35AE;. This aircraft model has attracted attention at the Singapore Airshow. Experts point out that compared to the export restricted US F-35, the export version of the J-35 may become a strong competitor.

The fourth generation of China's independent superconducting quantum computer, "Benyuan Wukong-180," has been launched.

domestic company

TSMC's revenue in April increased by 17.5% year-on-year, supported by AI demand for the full year expansion momentum. TSMC's revenue in April was NT $410.7 billion, a slight decrease of 1.1% compared to the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate dropped sharply from 45.2% in March to 17.5%. But in the first four months, the cumulative revenue reached NT $15448 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 29.9%. Backed by AlphabetAmazonWith the AI capital expenditure wave of tech giants reaching $725 billion, TSMC's annual capital expenditure guidance cap is as high as $56 billion.

All laboratories are afraid of bytes, and everyone is praising DeepSeek! A 36 hour Chinese AI tour by an American researcher. After finishing his 36 hour trip to China, Nathan Lambert, a researcher at the Allen Institute, sighed: The Chinese AI community is like a "paradise" - laboratories respect each other and cooperate for win-win results. He found that all laboratories were alert to ByteDance, but they all admired DeepSeek's research taste. Chinese companies generally independently develop large models and actively open source them, driven by a deep desire to "take control of the technology stack in their own hands".

Before Bubble Mart's financial report, Deutsche Bank shouted sell: overseas cooling, domestic fatigue, may turn negative growth for the whole year. Renowned investor Duan Yongping's high-profile liquidation of China Shenhua and full bet on Bubble Mart once drove the stock price up nearly 6% in a single day. However, Deutsche Bank poured cold water on the situation: overseas sales plummeted by up to 41% month on month, core IP second-hand prices were discounted by up to 40%, revenue may experience negative growth in 2026, and the forecast is more than 24% lower than market consensus expectations. The target price has been lowered to HKD 140 and a sell rating has been maintained.

Overseas Macro

Far beyond expectations! In the just concluded earnings season, the US stock market was surprisingly strong. The first quarter profit performance of American companies hit its best in 20 years, with S&P 500 constituent stocks' profits increasing by 27% year-on-year, more than double analysts' expectations. " The Seven Technology Giants; Profit surged by 57%. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 recorded positive growth for the first time in four years. Several institutions immediately raised their annual profit forecasts.

Countdown to the World Cup! Humans are optimistic about France winning the championship, AI: Spain also has a role to playThe 2026 World Cup is about to open, with the largest scale and technological content in history. Human respondents are optimistic about France winning the cup, while AI tool Copilot believes that Spain's chances of winning the championship have tied with France. The competition attracts 48 teams to compete and is expected to drive $41 billion worldwideGDPAnd achieve AI core operation for the first time, generating massive data of 2 exabytes.

The cost of $725 billion gambling on AI: US tech giants' cash flow hits a new low in over a decade. In order to seize the opportunity of AI, the four major tech giants, Amazon and Meta, have seen their combined free cash flow plummet to approximately $4 billion in 2026, hitting a new low since 2014. Amazon's net cash consumption for the year was billions, forcing Alphabet and Meta to issue bonds intensively and suspend buybacks. At the same time, off balance sheet items may allow giants to conceal real financial risks, while hardware inflation is forcing them to further increase their expenses.

A dangerous signal for the US stock market: the financial sector fell 6% this year, but the overall market is hitting new highs. While the S&P 500 hit record highs, the financial sector bucked the trend and fell by 6%. The XLF fell below the 200 day average and its relative market performance was the lowest since 1998- weaker than during the financial crisis and the COVID-19 impact. Historical data shows that the probability of a decline in the S&P 500 within one month after a divergence is as high as 90%.

overseas company

Thoroughly torn apart: OpenAI court debate staged 'personal attacks': Musk' doesn't understand AI and is irritable ', Altman' has poor character and hypocrisy '. Former CTO Murati accuses Altman of lying about security approvals and creating chaotic management. The Altman camp counterattacked, and Musk once went berserk in meetings, intending to take action. The trial also exposed that OpenAI sacrificed its security principles to obtain Microsoft's billion dollar investment, and its non-profit original intention is now in name only. This week, Altman will personally appear in court, and the ultimate showdown is about to unfold.

OpenAI makes models open their mouths. OpenAI has launched three new generation speech models, among which GPT Realtime 2, which focuses on inference, has significantly improved performance and can handle complex tasks with more natural dialogue. However, users need to pay attention to API pricing: $32 per million tokens for input and up to $64 for output. This means that if you use vulgar language or complain excessively about the model, you will be charged a high price every second. It's not difficult to make AI "open its mouth", but if it listens while "thinking" and retaliates against your emotions, the bill will be very realistic.

No one dares to borrow $10 billion, and SoftBank OpenAI's margin loan target has been lowered to $6 billion. SoftBank's billion dollar financing plan, secured by OpenAI equity, has encountered a Waterloo, forcing the loan target size to be reduced from $10 billion to $6 billion. The crux of the matter is that the lenders are unable to determine a reasonable valuation for this non listed AI giant. At the same time, OpenAI has repeatedly failed to meet its sales targets and the ChatGPT user milestone has been missed, deepening doubts from the outside world.

Camera+AI! The new Airpods are entering the final stage of development, and Apple is betting on "visual headphones" as the "first AI hardware". According to reports, Apple's new AirPods with cameras have entered the DVT (Design Verification Test) stage, which is the final major development phase before mass production. The camera is not used for taking photos, but serves as Siri's "eyes", which can recognize the user's surrounding environment and provide AI assisted information. John Ternus, who is about to take over as CEO of Apple, said that the company is "about to change the world again," and this product is one of its leading 10 heavyweight new products.

Jane Street's Q1 revenue reached a record high of $16.1 billion, with net profit doubling year-on-year, leading Wall Street. Jane Street's transaction revenue in the first quarter reached $16.1 billion, setting a historical record, with a net profit of $10.3 billion, both more than doubling compared to the same period last year. The first quarter performance is mainly driven by mid frequency trading strategies and AI private equity investments. Jane Street's trading revenue has surpassed Wall Street giants such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase.

Coinbase: Where is the old story from cryptocurrency brokers to financial infrastructure? If; All Things Exchange; The strategy will continue to be validated in the next 4-6 quarters, and Coinbase will no longer be a beta stock with cryptocurrency spot trading volume, but a financial infrastructure platform with regular revenue moats. The consensus direction on Wall Street is bullish, but the divergence lies in how long it will take for this company to truly tame the cyclical nature of trading revenue.

Industry/Concept

1、computing-electricity coordinationAccording to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, four departments including the National Development and Reform Commission, National Energy Administration, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and National Data Administration recently issued the "Action Plan for Promoting the Dual Empowerment of Artificial Intelligence and Energy". Huayuan Securities believes that green power direct connection is the key path to solving the pain points of carbon reduction demand and electricity costs in computing power centers. Different from pure green certificate trading, green power direct connection (especially physical direct connection) can meet the strict requirements of international standards such as the European Union for carbon emission offsetting, and solve the compliance problems of export-oriented enterprises. To address the pain points of unstable green power, grid type DC equipment such as solid-state transformers (SST) and solid-state circuit breakers, as well as collaborative scheduling technology that uses computing power as a flexible load, are expected to become important development directions.

2、commercial spaceAccording to the Shanghai Securities News, on May 9, the second Airspace Information Technology Conference was opened at the Zhejiang Tongxiang Internet International Convention and Exhibition Center. At the opening ceremony, the Aerospace Information Innovation Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CASI), together with more than 100 institutions such as scientific research institutes, aerospace enterprises and universities, took the lead in issuing the "Ecological Proposal for Co building the" Space Cloud ", proposing to work together to build a thousand star scale" Space Cloud "ecosystem, jointly build a world leading space-based information service system, and significantly improve the intelligent and systematic comprehensive application efficiency of space-based resources.

3、quantum computingOn the 9th, China's fourth generation autonomous superconducting quantum computer, "Benyuan Wukong-180," was officially launched and began receiving global quantum computing tasks. Dongfang Securities believes that quantum computers have surpassed the error correction threshold and are one step closer to building fault-tolerant quantum computing, accelerating the commercialization process. The support of policies for new quality productivity such as quantum computing is expected to bring greater market space and unleash performance potential. Suggest focusing on upstream core equipment and components, midstream whole machine platforms, and downstream application security targets.

4、computing power leasingAccording to CCTV Finance, data shows that as of March this year, the daily average usage of keywords in China has exceeded 140 trillion yuan, an increase of over a thousand times in two years. And this rapid growth trend is still continuing today. Since the beginning of this year, multiple large models have been launched both domestically and internationally, and AI intelligent agents have rapidly become popular, driving the continuous heating up of the computing power market. From the current supply and demand situation, it is expected that the computing power rental market will continue to grow in the near future.